New research shows that policies, visa prospects, and AI are increasingly on the minds of international students choosing where to study

28th Oct 2026 New research shows that policies, visa prospects, and AI are increasingly on the minds of international students choosing where to study

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Short on time? Here are the highlights:

New Emerging Futures research from IDP Education shows that the competition is intensifying for international students

Australia remains the number one preference, but its lead is slipping under new policy settings

Students are highly aware of visa approval prospects and this factors into the earliest stages of their research about study abroad

A third of students are considering AI’s potential impact on jobs when they choose what to study

New IDP Emerging Futures research reminds us that policies intended to redress only select problems and/or institutions in international education often have much broader consequences. When policies are announced too frequently – and/or with too little industry consultation or forewarning – they can hobble the recruitment efforts of even the highest quality institutions operating ethically and according to responsible foreign student growth plans.

The latest Emerging Futures survey was conducted between 18 August and 16 September 2026, and it elicited responses from 4,800 students in 106 countries. Prospective students composed the greatest share (41%) of respondents, followed by students who had applied (33%) and current students (13%).

Another 12% were students who had declined an offer (7%) and students who had completed their programme of study (5%). The survey was weighted towards postgraduate students (60%), while undergraduate students were 28% of the sample.

Australia slips seven percentage points in six months as a preferred destination Within a span of less than six months – May 2026 to October 2026 – Australia’s lead as students’ first choice destination fell from 31% to 24%. In May, it was 12 percentage points ahead of the UK, and 17 percentage points ahead of the US and Canada.

This October, Australia was just 3 percentage points ahead of the UK and the US. The context for Australia’s slip includes:

The July 2026 hike of the study visa application fee;

Six of the top ten markets for Australian educators being classified as “high-risk," which is linked to higher visa refusal rates, reduced recruitment, and fewer applications;

The removal of undergraduate and master’s students’ ability to bring their families with them;

The requirement that current students must leave the country to apply for another visa;

Heated political tensions around immigration, including the One Nation party proposing the abolishment of the Temporary Graduate Visa for most students.

Australia remains the top choice, but the UK and the US aren’t far behind. Source: IDP Emerging Futures, October 2026 The impact on students Writing in Times Higher Education , Mukesh Dhamala, who works with an Australian institution in Nepal, expressed his support of measures that address genuine integrity problems in Australian international education.

He agrees with “the removal of bad providers and dishonest agents, the refusal of fraudulent applications, the enforcement of academic and attendance requirements, and the prevention of artificial course hopping.”

However, Mr Dhamala believes that frequent, unexpected shifts in policy are having severe negative impacts on some genuine students. He puts it this way: “A line in a policy document can alter the future of a 22-year-old who has already spent years and substantial family resources building an Australian education.

Clear communication, reasonable notice and transition arrangements are all vital to retaining confidence.” A real-life example serves to underline Mr Dhamala’s point. On 22 October 2026, The Guardian interviewed Wina Satria, an Indonesian PhD candidate who brought her toddler with her when she began her studies in Australia in 2025.

The plan was for Ms Satria’s husband to join them the following year and help with childcare – something that was permitted when Ms Satria first chose Australia for her studies. But as of 2 October 2026, even current PhD students holding visas can no longer add a family member.

Ms Satria, who is studying at the University of Sydney, told the The Guardian :

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“I was shocked. It’s hard if we can’t have our family with us.

The hardest part is seeing my son when he misses his dad a lot.” Of the latest Emerging Futures findings, Simon Emmett, chief partner officer of IDP Education, commented: “Countries aren’t just competing on the strength of their universities anymore. Policy certainty, affordability, and the opportunities available to students during and after their studies are increasingly part of the equation.

"International student numbers are not a tap we can simply turn back on when we choose to. Countries must be mindful that the policies they implement and the messages they send do not result in an over-correction in student demand, sending thousands of students elsewhere.

Once a student chooses another country, it’s incredibly hard to win them back.” Australia’s strengths still stand Despite increasingly restrictive international education policies, IDP’s latest survey shows that Australia remains the first-choice destination (24%), the destination that the largest share of respondents considered (54%), and the best for post-study work policies and graduate employment opportunities. These are huge competitive advantages, and it is notable that international students continue to recognise them even as visa fees and refusal rates project a less welcoming Australia than in the past.

Students developing new strategies to keep options open It isn’t just Australia where policy flip-flops and/or unpredictability, escalating visa refusal rates, and increasing scrutiny of certain Global South markets are sending unwelcoming messages to prospective students. Those trends, to varying degrees, have been present in Canada, the US, and the UK over the past couple of years.

As a result, prospective students are hedging their bets: Fully three-quarters (76%) are considering more than one destination, and of those students, 36% are considering three or more. Another new development is the earlier time at which students explore their chances of being approved for a study visa.

Among the segment of students who had already applied at the time of the survey, 47% said they had looked at visa approval prospects when they were considering study abroad/making a destination shortlist. In other words, nearly half of this segment of students looked into visa approval rates to help them decide which destinations to apply to.

Visa approval prospects are top-of-mind for prospective students. Source: IDP Emerging Futures, October 2026 AI versus human influence As much as AI is affecting the decision-making of students, it is only one factor in their ultimate choice of destination and institution. For example, the survey found that:

The university website was the most common resource for research and decisions (60%);

Rankings and course comparison websites were next (46% and 42%);

Generative AI tools were used by 41%;

Agents and friends/family were the most influential human resource (37%).

Human resources remain key to students’ research about study abroad. Source: IDP Emerging Futures, October 2026 Does AI’s potential impact on jobs matter in course selection?

The latest Emerging Futures research included a very important new question: “When choosing a subject or course, how did the possible impact of AI on future job opportunities influence your choice?” The findings indicate that students are thinking carefully about the effect of AI on jobs when they choose which programme to enrol in. A third of prospective and applied students said they had become more interested in a course because they thought it might lead to better career prospects.

A third of students are choosing courses based on job prospects, and AI is part of the equation. Source: IDP Emerging Futures, October 2026 For additional background, please see:

“ Is your website keeping up with the new role of AI in student search? ”

“ One test, five markets: What do Australia’s student visa changes mean for South Asian recruitment? ”

“ The questions families are actually asking: Inside the student advising conversation in 2026 ”

“ Global agent survey reveals international students’ top concerns are visa uncertainty and affordability ”

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